SCARED STRAIGHT? How Amama Mbabazi’s Shadow Forced Anita Annet Among to Dump 2031 Presidential Ambitions

In a striking political volte-face that has ignited debate within Uganda’s power corridors, Speaker of Parliament Anita Annet Among has moved decisively to quash speculation about a possible 2031 presidential bid, instead declaring that she intends to retire from active politics altogether.

Her remarks, delivered with unusual force, come against the backdrop of a ruling party where even the faintest suggestion of presidential ambition—particularly toward the seat held by Yoweri Museveni—can trigger swift and unforgiving consequences. Within the National Resistance Movement (NRM), insiders often describe such ambition in stark terms: those perceived to be eyeing the presidency risk immediate isolation, marginalization, and political decline.

Against that reality, Among—widely regarded as a calculating and disciplined political operator—appears to have chosen caution over confrontation.

A Swift and Public Denial

Speaking on Monday in Kampala during a high-profile charity event, the Speaker dismissed reports linking her to a 2031 presidential run as baseless speculation. The event itself drew significant attention, not least because of her financial contribution of UGX 100 million to the “MK Run,” an initiative organized to mark the 52nd birthday of Muhoozi Kainerugaba, scheduled for April 26, 2026.

“I have heard some people saying Anita Among wants to stand for the presidency in 2031. I want to tell Ugandans that in 2031, I am retiring from active politics,” she said. She went further, branding the claims “rubbish” and “total nonsense.”

In the same remarks, Among downplayed any appetite for higher office, suggesting that even the role of a Member of Parliament carries demands significant enough to deter further ambition—comments that, on the surface, position her far from any presidential trajectory.

Lessons from a Predecessor

However, political analysts note that such statements cannot be read in isolation. Many point to the cautionary tale of Amama Mbabazi, once a dominant figure within the NRM who fell from grace after challenging Museveni between 2014 and 2016.

Mbabazi’s political undoing was swift and comprehensive. He lost his positions as Prime Minister and NRM Secretary General, and his influence eroded rapidly. The decisive blow came when Evelyn Anite tabled the Kyankwanzi resolution declaring Museveni the sole NRM presidential candidate—a move that effectively sealed Mbabazi’s fate.

Running under the Go Forward banner, Mbabazi secured just 136,519 votes, before fading into political isolation, abandoned by many of his former allies.

For observers, the parallels are instructive. Among’s emphatic denial, they argue, reflects not just personal choice but a strategic awareness of the risks inherent in perceived presidential ambition within the current system.

Signals Beneath the Surface

Yet, despite the Speaker’s categorical dismissal, questions persist.

Sources close to Among suggest that prior to her public remarks, she had increasingly projected the demeanor of a national contender—expanding her influence within Parliament and cultivating networks across political and social structures. Her growing prominence has been difficult to ignore.

At the same time, Museveni—now nearing four decades in power—has not publicly signaled any intention to step aside. By 2031, he will be 85, a reality that has quietly stirred debate within sections of the NRM about the party’s long-term trajectory.

That uncertainty has created space for emerging power centers. Younger political actors, including Among, have been consolidating influence not only within legislative circles but also across grassroots networks—ranging from youth groups and women’s leagues to religious institutions.

Internal Pressures and Strategic Calculations

Within the NRM itself, additional pressures are at play. While tradition has often allowed Speakers of Parliament to serve two terms, there is growing speculation that internal party arrangements could shift as Museveni recalibrates the political landscape ahead of the next electoral cycle.

Such uncertainty may partly explain Among’s cautious positioning. For a politician operating at the apex of legislative power, maintaining favor within the party hierarchy remains critical to political survival.

Emergence of New Political Undercurrents

Complicating the picture further are reports of a quiet but organized political undercurrent within the NRM, driven largely by influential figures from Eastern Uganda. According to multiple sources, this emerging bloc is laying the groundwork for a potential breakaway formation aimed at reshaping regional and national politics ahead of 2031.

The movement is said to be targeting key regions including Teso, Bugisu, and Busoga, with a broader ambition of positioning Eastern Uganda as a viable source of presidential leadership. Its backers reportedly include allies of Among and other senior figures with deep roots in the region.

Intelligence from within political circles suggests that the group is already drawing interest from opposition legislators and recent defectors to the ruling party, signaling the possibility of a more fluid and unpredictable political landscape in the years ahead.

Between Retreat and Recalibration

For now, Among’s position is unequivocal: she will not run for president and plans to exit active politics by 2031.

Yet in Uganda’s intricate political environment—where ambition is often carefully concealed, publicly denied, and strategically managed—her declaration raises as many questions as it answers.

Whether this represents a genuine withdrawal from future contention or a calculated move to preserve political capital remains unclear. What is evident, however, is that the battle for succession, though largely unspoken, continues to shape decisions at the highest levels of power.

As the countdown to 2031 quietly advances, Uganda’s political chessboard remains in motion—its next decisive move still uncertain.